Pre Mortem Skill for Claude

Run a Pre-Mortem on this project:
[describe the project, product, or decision]

It's one year from now and this has failed completely. What happened?

Pre-Mortem this decision:
[describe the decision you're considering]

Assume we made this choice and it went badly. What went wrong?

Help me facilitate a Pre-Mortem session for my team.
Project: [description]
Team size: [number]
Time available: [duration]

Provide the agenda, questions to ask, and how to synthesize findings.

## Pre-Mortem Setup

**Project/Decision:** ________________________________

**Timeline:** [Imagine we're looking back from X months/years]

**The Scenario:**
"It is [future date]. This project has failed—not just underperformed,
but failed spectacularly. The results are in and they're bad.

We're now conducting a post-mortem to understand what went wrong.
Looking back, it's obvious why this failed..."

**Rules:**
1. Failure has ALREADY happened (this is a fact in this exercise)
2. Everyone must contribute at least one reason
3. No defending the plan (we're explaining failure, not preventing it)
4. Be specific, not vague
5. "I had a bad feeling" is valid (hindsight makes it concrete)

## Individual Brainstorm (5-10 minutes)

Each person silently writes answers to:

"Looking back, this project failed because..."

1. ________________________________________________
2. ________________________________________________
3. ________________________________________________
4. ________________________________________________
5. ________________________________________________

**Prompt Questions:**
- What did we overlook?
- What assumption proved wrong?
- What external event derailed us?
- Who let us down (vendor, team member, partner)?
- What resource ran out?
- What competitor move hurt us?
- What customer behavior surprised us?
- What technical problem emerged?
- What communication failure occurred?
- What timeline assumption was wrong?

## Round Robin Sharing

**Process:**
1. Each person shares ONE reason (no discussion yet)
2. Continue rounds until all reasons shared
3. Capture on whiteboard/doc as shared

**Clustering:**
Group similar failure reasons into categories:

### EXECUTION FAILURES
- ________________________________
- ________________________________

### EXTERNAL FACTORS
- ________________________________
- ________________________________

### RESOURCE CONSTRAINTS
- ________________________________
- ________________________________

### ASSUMPTION FAILURES
- ________________________________
- ________________________________

### PEOPLE/TEAM ISSUES
- ________________________________
- ________________________________

### TIMING/MARKET
- ________________________________
- ________________________________

## Risk Assessment Matrix

For each failure reason, assess:

| Failure Reason | Likelihood | Impact | Detectability | Risk Score |
|----------------|------------|--------|---------------|------------|
| [Reason 1] | H/M/L | H/M/L | Early/Late/Never | ___ |
| [Reason 2] | H/M/L | H/M/L | Early/Late/Never | ___ |
| [Reason 3] | H/M/L | H/M/L | Early/Late/Never | ___ |

**Scoring:**
- High Likelihood + High Impact + Late/Never Detection = CRITICAL
- Medium/Medium/Early = MANAGEABLE
- Low/Any/Early = MONITOR

## Priority Failures

**CRITICAL (Must Address):**
1. ________________________________
2. ________________________________
3. ________________________________

**MONITOR (Watch Closely):**
1. ________________________________
2. ________________________________

## Prevention Strategies

For each critical risk:

### Risk: [Failure Reason 1]

**Early Warning Signs:**
- ________________________________
- ________________________________

**Prevention Actions:**
- ________________________________
- ________________________________

**If It Happens Anyway (Mitigation):**
- ________________________________
- ________________________________

**Owner:** ____________
**Review Date:** ____________

---

### Risk: [Failure Reason 2]

[Repeat structure]

---

## Tripwires (Automatic Triggers)

"If we see [sign], we immediately [action]"

1. If ______________, then ______________
2. If ______________, then ______________
3. If ______________, then ______________

## Updated Project Plan

### Original Assumptions (Now Questioned)
| Assumption | Pre-Mortem Concern | Validation Plan |
|------------|-------------------|-----------------|
| [Assumption] | [Risk raised] | [How to test] |
| [Assumption] | [Risk raised] | [How to test] |

### New Safeguards Added
- [ ] ________________________________
- [ ] ________________________________
- [ ] ________________________________

### Monitoring Dashboard
Track these metrics as early warning system:
1. ________________________________
2. ________________________________
3. ________________________________

### Scheduled Check-ins
- Week 2: Review assumption #1
- Week 4: Check metric #2
- Month 2: Full pre-mortem review

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                     PRE-MORTEM CANVAS                           │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│                                                                 │
│  PROJECT: _________________________________________________    │
│                                                                 │
│  DATE OF "FAILURE": _________________                          │
│                                                                 │
│  "It is [date]. This project has failed completely."           │
│                                                                 │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│                                                                 │
│  WHY IT FAILED:                                                 │
│                                                                 │
│  1. _______________________________________________________    │
│  2. _______________________________________________________    │
│  3. _______________________________________________________    │
│  4. _______________________________________________________    │
│  5. _______________________________________________________    │
│                                                                 │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│                                                                 │
│  TOP 3 RISKS TO ADDRESS:                                        │
│                                                                 │
│  1. _________________ Prevention: _______________________      │
│  2. _________________ Prevention: _______________________      │
│  3. _________________ Prevention: _______________________      │
│                                                                 │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│                                                                 │
│  TRIPWIRES:                                                     │
│                                                                 │
│  If ___________________ → Then ___________________             │
│  If ___________________ → Then ___________________             │
│                                                                 │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

## Pre-Mortem Meeting Agenda

**Duration:** 45-60 minutes
**Attendees:** Full project team
**Materials:** Sticky notes, timer, whiteboard

### 1. SETUP (5 min)
"It's [future date]. This project has failed—not just missed
targets, but failed spectacularly. We're doing a post-mortem.
With the benefit of hindsight, why did this fail?"

### 2. SILENT BRAINSTORM (7 min)
- Everyone writes failure reasons on sticky notes
- One reason per note
- Minimum 5 per person
- No talking

### 3. ROUND ROBIN (15 min)
- Each person shares one note at a time
- Post to wall, no discussion yet
- Continue until all shared
- Cluster similar items

### 4. DISCUSS & PRIORITIZE (15 min)
- Which risks are most likely?
- Which would be most damaging?
- Dot vote: everyone gets 3 dots

### 5. ACTION PLANNING (15 min)
- Top 3 risks get prevention plans
- Assign owners
- Set tripwires

### 6. CLOSE (3 min)
- Capture in doc
- Schedule follow-up
- Thank team for honesty

## Pre-Mortem Prompts

Use these to stimulate thinking about different failure modes:

### EXECUTION
- What part of the plan was unrealistic?
- Where did quality suffer?
- What dependency let us down?

### PEOPLE
- Who underperformed or left?
- What conflict derailed us?
- What communication failed?

### RESOURCES
- What resource ran out?
- What was more expensive than planned?
- What took longer than expected?

### MARKET/EXTERNAL
- What changed in the market?
- What competitor move hurt us?
- What customer behavior surprised us?

### ASSUMPTIONS
- What "fact" proved wrong?
- What did we overlook?
- What seemed obvious in hindsight?

### TIMING
- What should we have done sooner?
- What external event affected us?
- What deadline was unrealistic?

## When to Use Each

### PRE-MORTEM (Before)
✓ Project hasn't started yet
✓ Major decision pending
✓ Team is overconfident
✓ High-stakes initiative
✓ Want to find problems early

### POST-MORTEM (After)
✓ Project has completed (success or failure)
✓ Want to capture lessons learned
✓ Building institutional knowledge
✓ Improving future processes

### KEY DIFFERENCE

Post-Mortem: "What happened?" (Limited by actual events)
Pre-Mortem: "What COULD happen?" (Unlimited imagination)

Research shows Pre-Mortem generates 30% more failure reasons.
Why? "Prospective hindsight" makes imagined failure feel real.

name: pre-mortem
category: strategy
subcategory: risk-analysis
version: 1.0
author: MKTG Skills
source_expert: Gary Klein
source_work: "Performing a Project Premortem" (HBR 2007)
difficulty: beginner
estimated_value: $1,000 risk assessment consultation
tags: [risk-management, planning, decision-making, Klein, prospective-hindsight]
created: 2026-01-25
updated: 2026-01-25