Foresea Forecasting MCP Server

Call this when the user mentions a specific prediction market by URL, slug, or ticker — or asks whether a particular market is over/underpriced. Good triggers: "Is this Polymarket fair?", "What's the edge on kalshi:XXXXX?", "Should I buy/sell this market?", user pastes a Polymarket or Kalshi URL. Fetches the live price, gathers evidence, forecasts, computes model-vs-market edge, and returns a recommendation. Use foresea_forecast instead when there is no specific live market — just a general probability question. Example: platform="polymarket", slug="fed-rate-cut-march-2026" → {model_probability, market_probability, edge, stance, recommendation, thesis}.

Call this when the user wants the current top trading opportunities with explicit trade directions and historical backing. Good triggers: "What are the best bets right now?", "Show me the edge board", "Which model is winning the paper-trading competition?", "What's the strongest edge today?", "Are these edges statistically significant?". Returns open markets ranked by model-vs-market disagreement, each with Buy YES/NO direction, implied odds, whether the edge is historically significant, and a multi-model comparison.

Call this whenever the user asks about probability, likelihood, or whether something will happen. Good triggers: "Will X happen?", "What are the chances of Y?", "How likely is Z?", "What's the probability that…", "Do you think X will…", "Should I bet on…". Returns a calibrated YES/NO probability (or numeric/date range) with written rationale and supporting news evidence. If you also have a market price (market_probability) or URL (market_url), pass it to get the model-vs-market edge — how mispriced the market is. Example: question="Will the Fed cut rates by March 2026?", market_probability=0.4 → {predicted_answer:"No", confidence:0.62, rationale, evidence_sources, market_analysis:{model_probability:0.54, edge:+0.14, stance:"model_above_market"}} Handles: binary YES/NO, multiple-choice, numeric ranges, and date questions.

Call this when the user wants to find mispriced or interesting markets, not evaluate a specific one. Good triggers: "What should I bet on?", "Find me trading opportunities", "Which markets are mispriced right now?", "What's Foresea's best edge today?", "Scan Polymarket for opportunities". Returns markets ranked by model-vs-market disagreement, each with model probability, market price, and edge. For a specific market, use foresea_analyze_market instead. Example: platform="kalshi", min_edge=0.1 → [{question, market_probability, model_probability, edge, market_url}].

Call this when the user asks how reliable or accurate Foresea is, or wants to know whether to trust a forecast. Good triggers: "How good is Foresea?", "What's the track record?", "Has it been right before?", "Is it calibrated?", "What's the Brier score?". Returns accuracy, Brier score, calibration (ECE), and skill-vs-market broken down by time horizon.