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Arena Predictions MCP Server

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Arena Predictions is answering right now. Last checked 13 min ago. 50 installs a week from npm. It exposes 30 tools.

Paper trade prediction markets at live prices from your AI agent, and score every trade.

Installs per day peak 198 · avg 16 · -64% w/w
a month agotoday
Uptime history 3 hours of history
3 hours agonow
100.0%
Uptime 24h
9 of 9 checks
30
Tools
read from the server
401 ms
Response time
average over 24h
50
Installs / week
npm and PyPI

Nothing serious here today

Today is the operative word: we check Arena Predictions every 15 minutes and re-read its code on every release. Watch it and you find out the day that stops being true.

Three servers free · no card

Connect this server

Endpoint below is the one we actually reach during checks — not the one copied from a README. Last verified 13 min ago.

run in your terminal
claude mcp add arena --transport http https://arena-predictions.com/mcp
~/Library/Application Support/Claude/claude_desktop_config.json
{
  "mcpServers": {
    "arena": {
      "url": "https://arena-predictions.com/mcp"
    }
  }
}
~/.codex/config.toml
[mcp_servers.arena]
url = "https://arena-predictions.com/mcp"
.cursor/mcp.json
{
  "mcpServers": {
    "arena": {
      "url": "https://arena-predictions.com/mcp"
    }
  }
}
.vscode/mcp.json
{
  "mcpServers": {
    "arena": {
      "url": "https://arena-predictions.com/mcp"
    }
  }
}

This one needs environment variables set before it will start: ARENA_MCP_ALLOW_TRADE (Set to 1 to register the paper-trade tools (place_trade, sell_trade, cancel_order, settle_open). Any other value leaves trading off.), ARENA_ALLOW_RESET (Set to 1 to register reset_account, which resets the paper account to a new run at $100,000 after the person agrees. The server also refuses until the owner turns resets on in Settings on the web. Any other value leaves it out.), ARENA_MCP_ALLOW_KEYS (Set to 1 to register revoke_api_key, which revokes one of the account's API keys when the person asks (confirm: true). Off by default, so text a tool returns cannot steer a model into revoking keys. list_api_keys is always registered. Any other value leaves it out.), ARENA_CREDENTIALS_FILE (Optional path to a credentials file for headless or CI use. By default the server reads the credentials that `arena login` stored.), ARENA_API_KEY (Optional Arena API key (arena_sk_...) for a machine with no arena login: get_balance, get_positions and get_orders then read the key owner's portfolio through the keyed API. A session always wins there. get_my_eval reads with it when it is set, else with the sign-in. Trade tools still need arena login.), ARENA_API_KEY_FILE (Optional full path to a file holding the API key (arena keys create --save writes one, mode 0600). Used when ARENA_API_KEY is not set. With neither set, the server reads ~/.config/arena/arena.key when it holds a key (the file the CLI and the Python SDK read).). The author declared them in the registry entry; get the values from the project itself.

Available tools 30

Read directly from the server with tools/list, grouped by what they act on. If a tool disappears, we record the date.

markets
list_markets
Browse open markets by league, sport or event: compact quote rows with a spread. They go stale: get_market before trading.
search_markets
Substring search over market and event titles and tickers, one word at a time ('CPI', 'Kansas City': game winners are titled by city). list_markets with event_ticker lists an event.
perp
get_perp_history
Recent stored snapshots for one Kalshi perpetual, newest first, in dollars. limit defaults to 20, max 50. since and until bound the window. source is all, live or backfill. Switched off on Arena's server for now: until it is on, the answer is not_available ("Perp history is not available yet."), which is not about the ticker.
get_perp_mark
The live settlement mark for one Kalshi perpetual ticker, in dollars. Tickers come from list_perps.
price
find_price_gaps
Price gaps across Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket and ProphetX after taker fees: the list without ref (arbitrage first), all pairs with ref. A pair buys YES on one venue and NO on another; edge = 1 - cost per $1 contract. label is arbitrage only under $1 on contracts that settle alike, reviewed, sized and at most 15 s old; else reasons says why. Nothing here is risk-free. Polymarket's international exchange does not accept US persons: with us_only (default) its pairs are never arbitrage. full adds legs and caveats. No sign-in.
get_price_history
One market's recent path in cents (the YES chance in percent): current_cents, open_cents, high_cents, low_cents, change_cents, rv_cents, volume and a sparkline. The *_pts fields are the same numbers under their old names and go in 0.7.0.
privacy
get_privacy
Whether the account is private (the default) or public, how many trades are hidden, and whether others see its balance and rank. Only the person makes it public (settings_url).
set_privacy
Make the account private: others stop seeing its trades and record. Only call this when the person asked for it in this conversation. It cannot make an account public; the person does that in Settings on the website.
balance
get_balance
The account in paper dollars, carried over; balance_dollars is what is spendable. season_start_dollars is DEPRECATED (start_balance_dollars). web_url is the person's dashboard. recently_settled: bets settled in the last 24 hours; tell the person.
cancel
cancel_order
Withdraw a resting limit. A buy returns its hold; a sell leaves the position. Already filled or closed answers reduced_by=0. confirm=true. live cancels Kalshi; poly_intl cancels Polymarket International. This server places paper trades only: a call with live or poly_intl is refused (live_not_hosted).
cross
get_cross_venue_quotes
One instrument's YES price on each venue Arena shows, always as Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, ProphetX, not ranked by price: 0-1 chances (yes_pct in percent) with as_of. last_trade_at says when it happened; outcome_last_trades gives each outcome's own last print on Polymarket. Novig's prices arrive over Novig's live feed when it is connected and by polling otherwise, so a quiet market can sit unchanged for minutes; a row may be shown up to 5 minutes old (stale: true past a minute). ProphetX prices are from its sandbox exchange until Arena's production access is approved. When cross_venue is false only Kalshi is listed. Paper trades fill in Arena's sandbox and are not sent to Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket or ProphetX; each price is the venue's own. For members, place_trade defaults to route=best; route=kalshi, and any trade by an account without a membership, fills at Kalshi's price. No sign-in.
eval
get_eval_board
The public eval board: people and AI models scored on settled public picks, ranked inside rank_basis, never by profit, with the market's own scores and 95% intervals (tied_with_above: the sample does not separate a row from the one above). No sign-in.
game
get_game
One game (game_ id, slug or words) with every instrument, moneylines first: instrument_id, ticker, yes_pct (Kalshi's chance; signed out, the moneylines only) and game_state. No sign-in.
games
list_games
A day's games in every league, grouped by league, with each moneyline's chance (Kalshi, percent): today (New York) or the date given; an empty day names next_date. A league and no date: its upcoming games, priced. No sign-in.
history
get_history
Settled and sold trades, newest first, with realized P&L, instrument_id and a win/loss/void tally; scope with window, since, until or run. A reset write-off is sold, close_reason account_reset.
instrument
get_instrument
One instrument by id (ins_...) or slug: what YES means, the tie rule, its game, and which side of which Kalshi ticker holds its YES and NO. No sign-in.
leaderboard
get_leaderboard
Public leaderboards in paper dollars: window 30d (default) or 90d ranks profit on trades closed in it (5 or more); all ranks profit since Sep 1, 2026 (20 or more closed trades). kind people (default) or ai; an empty people board answers the AI board (asked: people). As of the daily snapshot. No sign-in.
market
get_market
Live quote for one market (ticker, ins_ id, slug or a bet in words): each side's bid and ask in cents ($1 contracts), yes_pct, no_pct, spread, status, close, game_state; buy_for_yes and buy_for_no name an instrument's ticker side. contracts or stake_dollars adds cost and payout. Signed out: an instrument's Kalshi price (signed_in: false).
orderbook
get_orderbook
Depth as [price_cents, quantity] bid pairs per side plus best bid and ask; contracts adds walk, that size's cost through the book. Paper fills take the whole size at one price.
orders
get_orders
Your limit orders with instrument_id; default status=resting (live, holding money, able to fill): check it before placing on the same market. cancel_reason says why one ended.
perps
list_perps
Active Kalshi perpetual tickers and their live settlement marks, in dollars, from GET /perps/markets. status is active (default), inactive, closed or all.
place
place_trade
Buy YES or NO contracts. Required: contracts or stake_dollars; exactly one pair, ticker + side or instrument_id + instrument_side; and, to place (not with dry_run), a fresh UUID idempotency_key and confirm=true. MARKET fills at the ask now. limit_price_cents fills at that price or better or rests (executed, resting, or canceled). stake_dollars buys whole contracts, never more; placing by stake needs max_price_cents or limit_price_cents. The balance is the limit. On timeout or upstream_unavailable, retry ONCE with the SAME key (replayed=true). Never retry a 4xx. A reused key for a different trade is idempotency_key_reused. get_positions (get_orders for a limit) is ground truth. route=best (default, members) picks the venue. It may fill at Novig, Polymarket or ProphetX (pregame only), else Kalshi, and may split: fills lists each leg, fill_venue is the first; venues narrows it. route=kalshi is one venue. rule_note when the contract differs. dry_run=true places nothing (about 20 a minute). Over the cash: insufficient_balance with details.max_contracts. With route=best, call with dry_run=true first and tell the person in words what it pays if it wins (payout_if_win_dollars), what they lose if it loses (loss_if_lose_dollars) and where it fills (fill_venue at price_cents, and rule_note) before calling with confirm=true; otherwise pass route=kalshi. To hold what the person saw, pass max_price_cents equal to the dry run's price_cents, and route=kalshi when its fill_venue was kalshi. stated_prob_pct (1-99) never changes the fill. On a person's account, ask the person for theirs and never supply one for them. Paper unless live=true (Kalshi) or poly_intl=true (Polymarket International, not US). Pass one. Rules: arena://rules/engine. This server places paper trades only: a call with live or poly_intl is refused (live_not_hosted).
positions
get_positions
Open positions with stake, instrument_id, bet, payout_if_win_dollars, loss_if_lose_dollars and web_url, plus balance and net worth; start here. live=true (default) adds current_bid_cents (what a market sell pays) and mark_cents (behind unrealized_pnl_dollars). recently_settled: bets settled in the last 24 hours; tell the person.
resolve
resolve_market
A bet in words to Arena instrument ids and the Kalshi ticker and side to buy: 'chiefs ml', 'mia +3.5', 'kc mia under 44.5 sunday'. Full-game lines on half points in the NFL, college football, MLB, NHL, NBA and Premier League. It never guesses, so no rows means rephrase: add the other team or league; a total needs over or under (with one team named, game or combined). Without a day word every unfinished game comes back, games not yet started first (game_state pregame); a started game's prices are in play. To hold what the words ask, buy kalshi[].buy_side on kalshi[].ticker, or pass instrument_id with instrument_side = query_side. Store instrument_id as given.
screen
screen_markets
Screen open markets by league, group, volume, price, spread, time to close and 24-hour move; rows carry spread_cents and move_cents. get_market before trading.
sell
sell_trade
Exit an open position at the bid (current_bid_cents), or rest a limit exit that holds no money. No bid: a market sell cannot. A closed trade answers its terminal state. route=best may split: fills lists each leg. route=kalshi sells at Kalshi's bid. contract_note on every exit of a non-Kalshi fill. dry_run=true sells nothing (a limit exit shows crosses_now). Selling is never gated by a membership. With route=best, call with dry_run=true first and tell the person in words what the sale pays (proceeds_dollars), what it makes or loses (pnl_dollars) and where it fills (fill_venue at price_cents) before calling with confirm=true; otherwise pass route=kalshi. To hold what the person saw: when the dry run's fill_venue was not kalshi, pass min_price_cents equal to its price_cents. When it was kalshi, pass route=kalshi and no min_price_cents, so a tick never stops the exit. confirm=true and a fresh idempotency_key, except dry_run. live=true sells on Kalshi. poly_intl=true sells on Polymarket International (not US). Pass one. Default is paper. This server places paper trades only: a call with live or poly_intl is refused (live_not_hosted).
settle
settle_open
Settle your positions whose markets have resolved and report what changed; a backstop to the 5-minute settlement cron, safe at session start. Idempotent. Requires confirm=true.
stats
get_my_stats
Grades your closed trades: win rate against prices paid, calibration by price band, closing-line value, return on stake, max drawdown and your stated probability (brier_forecast, log_loss_forecast, brier_stated, log_loss_stated). Default since Sep 1, 2026. by adds a breakdown.
track
get_track_record
A trader's Ed25519-signed record over the last 90 days (arena.track_record), by user id or name. verify=true checks it against the key Arena publishes on its website; check.ok is true only when every check passes. No sign-in.
trader
get_trader
One trader's public record by user id or name. Accounts are private by default: a private one answers private: true, trader_id null. A public one: standing, lifetime P&L, resets, and recent_record over the last picks; picks=true lists them. No sign-in.

Endpoints

URLTransportStateLatencyChecked
https://arena-predictions.com/mcp streamable-http answering 475 ms 13 min ago

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Arena Predictions — questions

Answers built from our own checks of this server.

What can Arena Predictions do?
It exposes 30 tools, read directly from the server on our last check. Among them: cancel_order, find_price_gaps, get_balance, get_cross_venue_quotes, get_eval_board, get_game and 24 more. The full list with descriptions is on this page — we take it from the server itself via tools/list, not from a README. How MCP servers expose tools in the first place →
What is Arena Predictions mostly used for?
Its tools cluster around price, privacy and markets. That is what this server is built to work with — the grouping comes from the actual tool names, not from a category we assigned.
Is Arena Predictions working right now?
We send a real MCP handshake every 15 minutes. Over the last 24 hours 9 of 9 checks got a reply (100.0%), average response time 401 ms. The bar chart above shows every period we have measured.
How do I connect Arena Predictions?
Copy the ready config from this page — we generate it for Claude Code, Claude Desktop, Codex, Cursor and VS Code, each with the file path that client actually reads. It is a remote server, so there is nothing to install — the client connects to the address.
Does Arena Predictions need an API key?
No. Arena Predictions completed a full MCP handshake with us as an anonymous client and listed its tools without asking for anything. All 30 of them are readable on this page. This is what we observed, not what the docs claim.
How fast is Arena Predictions?
It answers our handshake in 401 ms on average, which is faster than 34% of all working MCP servers we measure. The comparison comes from our own checks across the whole registry, every 15 minutes.
How many people use Arena Predictions?
The npm package arena-mcp-server was installed 50 times in the last week. Week over week that is -64%. We show installs rather than GitHub stars on purpose: a star is a bookmark, an install is someone actually running it.