Identify failure modes before they occur using structured risk analysis
npx skills add https://github.com/vibeeval/vibecosystem --skill premortem
Identify failure modes before they occur by systematically questioning plans, designs, and implementations. Based on Gary Klein's technique, popularized by Shreyas Doshi (Stripe).
/premortem # Auto-detect context, choose depth
/premortem quick # Force quick analysis (plans, PRs)
/premortem deep # Force deep analysis (before implementation)
/premortem <file> # Analyze specific plan or code
> "Imagine it's 3 months from now and this project has failed spectacularly. Why did it fail?"
| Category | Symbol | Meaning |
|----------|--------|---------|
| Tiger | [TIGER] | Clear threat that will hurt us if not addressed |
| Paper Tiger | [PAPER] | Looks threatening but probably fine |
| Elephant | [ELEPHANT] | Thing nobody wants to talk about |
Do NOT flag risks based on pattern-matching alone. Every potential tiger MUST go through verification.
Common mistakes that create false tigers:
if exists(): fallbackBefore flagging ANY tiger, verify:
potential_finding:
what: "Hardcoded path at line 42"
verification:
context_read: true # Did I read ±20 lines around the finding?
fallback_check: true # Is there try/except, if exists(), or else branch?
scope_check: true # Is this even in scope for this code?
dev_only_check: true # Is this in __main__, tests/, or dev-only code?
result: tiger | paper_tiger | false_alarm
If ANY verification check is "no" or "unknown", DO NOT flag as tiger.
Every tiger MUST include:
tiger:
risk: "<description>"
location: "file.py:42"
severity: high|medium
# REQUIRED - what mitigation was checked and NOT found:
mitigation_checked: "No exists() check, no try/except, no fallback branch"
If you cannot fill in mitigation_checked with specific evidence, it's not a verified tiger.
# Auto-detect based on context
if in_plan_creation:
depth = "quick" # Localized scope
elif before_implementation:
depth = "deep" # Global scope
elif pr_review:
depth = "quick" # Localized scope
else:
# Ask user
AskUserQuestion(
question="What depth of pre-mortem analysis?",
header="Depth",
options=[
{"label": "Quick (2-3 min)", "description": "Plans, PRs, localized changes"},
{"label": "Deep (5-10 min)", "description": "Before implementation, global scope"}
]
)
Run through these mentally, note any that apply:
Core Questions:
Output Format:
premortem:
mode: quick
context: "<plan/PR being analyzed>"
# Two-pass process: first gather potential risks, then verify each one
potential_risks: # Pass 1: Pattern-matching findings
- "hardcoded path at line 42"
- "missing error handling for X"
# Pass 2: After verification
tigers:
- risk: "<description>"
location: "file.py:42"
severity: high|medium
category: dependency|integration|requirements|testing
mitigation_checked: "<what was NOT found>" # REQUIRED
elephants:
- risk: "<unspoken concern>"
severity: medium
paper_tigers:
- risk: "<looks scary but ok>"
reason: "<why it's fine - what mitigation EXISTS>"
location: "file.py:42-48" # Show the mitigation location
false_alarms: # Findings that turned out to be nothing
- finding: "<what was initially flagged>"
reason: "<why it's not a risk>"
Work through each category systematically:
Technical Risks:
Integration Risks:
Process Risks:
Testing Risks:
Output Format:
premortem:
mode: deep
context: "<implementation being analyzed>"
# Two-pass process
potential_risks: # Pass 1: Initial scan findings
- "no circuit breaker for external API"
- "hardcoded timeout value"
# Pass 2: After verification (read context, check for mitigations)
tigers:
- risk: "<description>"
location: "file.py:42"
severity: high|medium
category: scalability|dependency|data|security|integration|testing
mitigation_checked: "<what mitigations were looked for and NOT found>"
suggested_fix: "<how to address>"
elephants:
- risk: "<unspoken concern>"
severity: medium|high
suggested_fix: "<suggested approach>"
paper_tigers:
- risk: "<looks scary>"
reason: "<why it's actually ok - cite the mitigation code>"
location: "file.py:45-52"
false_alarms:
- finding: "<initial concern>"
reason: "<why verification showed it's not a risk>"
checklist_gaps:
- category: "<which checklist section>"
items_failed: ["<item1>", "<item2>"]
BLOCKING: Present findings and require user decision.
# Build risk summary
risk_summary = format_risks(tigers, elephants)
AskUserQuestion(
question=f"""Pre-Mortem identified {len(tigers)} tigers, {len(elephants)} elephants:
{risk_summary}
How would you like to proceed?""",
header="Risks",
options=[
{
"label": "Accept risks and proceed",
"description": "Acknowledged but not blocking"
},
{
"label": "Add mitigations to plan (Recommended)",
"description": "Update plan with risk mitigations before proceeding"
},
{
"label": "Research mitigation options",
"description": "I don't know how to mitigate - help me find solutions"
},
{
"label": "Discuss specific risks",
"description": "Talk through particular concerns"
}
]
)
# Log acceptance for audit trail
print("Risks acknowledged. Proceeding with implementation.")
# Continue to next workflow step
# User provides mitigation approach
# Update plan file with mitigations section
# Re-run quick premortem to verify mitigations address risks
# Spawn parallel research for each HIGH severity tiger
for tiger in high_severity_tigers:
# Internal: How has codebase handled this before?
Task(
subagent_type="scout",
prompt=f"""
Find how this codebase has previously handled: {tiger.category}
Specifically looking for patterns related to: {tiger.risk}
Return:
- File:line references to similar solutions
- Patterns used
- Libraries/utilities available
"""
)
# External: What are best practices?
Task(
subagent_type="oracle",
prompt=f"""
Research best practices for: {tiger.risk}
Context: {tiger.category} in a {tech_stack} codebase
Return:
- Recommended approaches (ranked)
- Library options
- Common pitfalls to avoid
"""
)
# Wait for research to complete
# Synthesize options
# Present via AskUserQuestion with 2-4 mitigation options
# Ask which risk to discuss
AskUserQuestion(
question="Which risk would you like to discuss?",
header="Risk",
options=[format_risk_option(r) for r in all_risks[:4]]
)
# Then have conversation about that specific risk
If user added mitigations, append to the plan:
## Risk Mitigations (Pre-Mortem)
### Tigers Addressed:
1. **{risk}** (severity: {severity})
- Mitigation: {user_or_researched_mitigation}
- Added to phase: {phase_number}
### Accepted Risks:
1. **{risk}** - Accepted because: {reason}
### Pre-Mortem Run:
- Date: {timestamp}
- Mode: {quick|deep}
- Tigers: {count}
- Elephants: {count}
After plan structure is approved, before ExitPlanMode:
# Run quick premortem
/premortem quick
# If HIGH risks found, block until addressed
# If only MEDIUM/LOW, inform and proceed
# Run deep premortem on full plan
/premortem deep thoughts/shared/plans/YYYY-MM-DD-feature.md
# Block until all HIGH tigers addressed
# Run quick premortem on diff scope
/premortem quick
# Inform of any risks found
| Severity | Blocking? | Action Required |
|----------|-----------|-----------------|
| HIGH | Yes | Must address or explicitly accept |
| MEDIUM | No | Inform user, recommend addressing |
| LOW | No | Note for awareness |
User: /premortem deep thoughts/shared/plans/2026-01-08-api-rate-limiting.md
Claude: Running deep pre-mortem on API rate limiting plan...
[Reviews plan against deep checklist]
Pre-mortem complete. Found 2 tigers, 1 elephant:
**TIGERS:**
1. [HIGH] No circuit breaker for external payment API
- Category: dependency
- If payment API is slow/down, requests will pile up
2. [HIGH] No rollback strategy defined
- Category: integration
- If rate limiting breaks auth flow, no quick fix path
**ELEPHANTS:**
1. [MEDIUM] Team hasn't used Redis before
- We're introducing Redis for rate limit counters
- Learning curve could slow implementation
**PAPER TIGERS:**
1. Database migration size - Only adds one index, <1s migration
[AskUserQuestion presented]
User: Research mitigation options
Claude: Researching mitigations...
[Spawns scout + oracle in parallel]
Found 3 options for circuit breaker:
1. **Use existing retry util** (Recommended)
- Found at src/utils/retry.ts:45
- Already handles exponential backoff
- Just need to add circuit breaker state
2. **Add resilience4j-lite**
- Popular library for this pattern
- More features but new dependency
3. **Custom implementation**
- Full control but more code to maintain
Which approach for the circuit breaker?
User: Option 1 - use existing retry util
Claude: Added to plan:
## Risk Mitigations (Pre-Mortem)
### Tigers Addressed:
1. **No circuit breaker** (HIGH)
- Mitigation: Extend src/utils/retry.ts with circuit breaker state
- Added to Phase 1
Shall I also address the rollback strategy tiger?
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