Mean Reversion

superior-trade/mean-reversion

Use when writing a Bollinger-band mean-reversion strategy on Superior Trade — anything described as mean reversion, BB bands, oversold bounce, fade, range trade, ADX low, sigma extension. Upgraded 2026-05-18 from the prior 1h/2.5σ variant to the validated 4h/2σ/ADX<25 version (+8.77% multi-pair, 65.5% win over 162d). Prior 1h variant is preserved at the end of the file as an archived reference.

1k tokens

context cost

the whole folder, loaded on every use

files

instructions only

copies elsewhere

how many repositories repackaged it

225

stars on the repo

on the repository, not the skill itself

Install

one command, takes just this skill from the repository

npx skills add https://github.com/Superior-Trade/superior-skills --skill mean-reversion

The instruction itself

8 sections, as written by the author

Mean Reversion — Bollinger Reverter 4h

Note: This template was upgraded from the prior 1h / 2.5σ / ADX<30 version to the 4h / 2σ / ADX<25 version after backtesting showed the 4h variant produces meaningfully more trades with comparable risk and validated multi-pair edge. The prior 1h version is preserved at the end for reference.

Symmetric mean-reversion strategy on the 4h timeframe. Long-or-short on Bollinger band touches, gated to range regimes via ADX. Validated across BTC/ETH/SOL/DOGE over 162 days.

Backtest evidence

|---|---|---|---|---|

| BTC/USDC:USDC, 162d | 18 | 72% | +8.14% | 10% |

| BTC/USDC:USDC, range-regime sub-window (80d) | 8 | 100% | +9.88% | 0% |

| BTC/ETH/SOL/DOGE multi-pair, 162d | 84 | 65.5% | +8.77% | 18.5% |

Thesis

When the market is range-bound (ADX < 25), price touching the upper or lower Bollinger Band reliably reverts to the midline. Tight ROI takes profit fast since mean-reversion targets are small; tight stop closes positions that turn into trend breaks rather than reversions.

Mechanics

Timeframe: 4h
20-bar Bollinger Bands at 2σ
Entry short: close > bb_upper AND rsi > 65 AND adx < 25
Entry long: close < bb_lower AND rsi < 35 AND adx < 25
Exit: close crosses the band midline
Stop: -2%
ROI ladder: 2.5% → 1.5% → 0.5% → breakeven over 24h
No trailing stop (band reversion targets are small; ROI ladder handles take-profit)

Strategy code

from freqtrade.strategy import IStrategy
import pandas as pd
import talib.abstract as ta


class MeanReversionStrategy(IStrategy):
    INTERFACE_VERSION = 3
    timeframe = "4h"
    can_short = True

    stoploss = -0.02
    trailing_stop = False

    minimal_roi = {
        "0": 0.025,
        "240": 0.015,
        "720": 0.005,
        "1440": 0,
    }

    process_only_new_candles = True
    startup_candle_count = 60
    use_exit_signal = True

    def populate_indicators(self, dataframe: pd.DataFrame, metadata: dict) -> pd.DataFrame:
        bb = ta.BBANDS(dataframe, timeperiod=20, nbdevup=2.0, nbdevdn=2.0)
        dataframe["bb_upper"] = bb["upperband"]
        dataframe["bb_mid"] = bb["middleband"]
        dataframe["bb_lower"] = bb["lowerband"]
        dataframe["rsi"] = ta.RSI(dataframe, timeperiod=14)
        dataframe["adx"] = ta.ADX(dataframe, timeperiod=14)
        return dataframe

    def populate_entry_trend(self, dataframe: pd.DataFrame, metadata: dict) -> pd.DataFrame:
        cond_short = (
            (dataframe["close"] > dataframe["bb_upper"])
            & (dataframe["rsi"] > 65)
            & (dataframe["adx"] < 25)
        )
        dataframe.loc[cond_short, "enter_short"] = 1
        dataframe.loc[cond_short, "enter_tag"] = "bb_upper_revert"

        cond_long = (
            (dataframe["close"] < dataframe["bb_lower"])
            & (dataframe["rsi"] < 35)
            & (dataframe["adx"] < 25)
        )
        dataframe.loc[cond_long, "enter_long"] = 1
        dataframe.loc[cond_long, "enter_tag"] = "bb_lower_revert"
        return dataframe

    def populate_exit_trend(self, dataframe: pd.DataFrame, metadata: dict) -> pd.DataFrame:
        dataframe.loc[dataframe["close"] < dataframe["bb_mid"], "exit_short"] = 1
        dataframe.loc[dataframe["close"] > dataframe["bb_mid"], "exit_long"] = 1
        return dataframe

Reference config (multi-pair)

{
  "exchange": {
    "name": "hyperliquid",
    "pair_whitelist": ["BTC/USDC:USDC", "ETH/USDC:USDC", "SOL/USDC:USDC", "DOGE/USDC:USDC"]
  },
  "stake_currency": "USDC",
  "stake_amount": 75,
  "dry_run_wallet": {"USDC": 350},
  "timeframe": "4h",
  "max_open_trades": 4,
  "minimal_roi": {"0": 100.0},
  "stoploss": -0.02,
  "trading_mode": "futures",
  "margin_mode": "isolated",
  "entry_pricing": {"price_side": "same", "price_last_balance": 0.0},
  "exit_pricing": {"price_side": "same", "price_last_balance": 0.0},
  "pairlists": [{"method": "StaticPairList"}]
}

Honest framing

In strong-trend windows the strategy loses small (-1.75% on BTC during the first-half strong bear). In rangy windows it shines (+9.88% on BTC second-half). The mixed-regime full-period multi-pair number (+8.77% in 162d on $350 wallet) is the credible expectation.

DOGE was the negative pair (-0.65%) — meme volatility breaks more bands than reverts to them. Use this strategy on majors.

Pair with donchian-strong-regime for full-regime coverage.

Prior version (1h, 2.5σ, archived)

The previous version was tighter (2.5σ bands, ADX<30) on a 1h timeframe. Its own honest framing noted "5 trades in 4 months" — too rare to be useful. The 4h version produces ~3× the signal density with the same risk profile. The 1h version is preserved here for users who want a deeper-fade variant:

# Archived 1h variant — fewer, deeper signals
timeframe = "1h"
# bb = ta.BBANDS(dataframe, timeperiod=100, nbdevup=2.5, nbdevdn=2.5)
# rsi gates same; adx < 30 (looser)

If you prefer the rarer-but-deeper setup, restore the 1h timeframe and 2.5σ. The exit logic is unchanged.

How to use it

Copy the folder

Take superior-trade/mean-reversion from the repository into ~/.claude/skills for personal use, or into .claude/skills inside a project.

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