Inflection Skill for Codex

Detect the biggest financial and operating inflections for the company named in the user's request. If no ticker or company is provided, ask for one before proceeding.

Before starting, read ../data-access.md for data access methods and ../design-system.md for formatting conventions. Follow the data access detection logic and design system throughout this skill.

Follow these steps:

1. Company Lookup

Look up the company by ticker using discover_companies. Capture:

• company_id
• latest_calendar_quarter — anchor for all period calculations below (see ../data-access.md Section 1.5)
• latest_fiscal_quarter
• Firm name for report attribution (default: "Daloopa") — see ../data-access.md Section 4.5

2. Broad Series Discovery

Cast a wide net to discover ALL available series for this company. Search with multiple keyword sets to maximize coverage:

• Financial: "revenue", "income", "profit", "margin", "eps", "cash flow"
• Operating: "subscriber", "user", "customer", "unit", "arpu", "retention"
• Segment: "segment", "product", "service", "geographic"
• Balance sheet: "debt", "asset", "equity", "cash"
• Other: "backlog", "bookings", "pipeline", "store", "employee"

Collect all unique series IDs. The goal is comprehensiveness — capture every metric Daloopa tracks for this company.

3. Pull 8 Quarters of Data

Calculate 8 quarters backward from latest_calendar_quarter. Pull all discovered series for those periods. This gives enough history to compute both QoQ and YoY rates plus their second derivatives.

4. Compute Growth Rates and Inflections

For each series with sufficient data (at least 5 quarters):

YoY Growth Rate for each quarter:

• growth_t = (value_t - value_{t-4}) / |value_{t-4}|

YoY Acceleration (second derivative):

• accel_t = growth_t - growth_{t-1}
• Positive = accelerating, Negative = decelerating

QoQ Sequential Growth (for non-seasonal metrics):

• seq_growth_t = (value_t - value_{t-1}) / |value_{t-1}|

QoQ Acceleration:

• seq_accel_t = seq_growth_t - seq_growth_{t-1}

Skip series where values are too small (< 1% of revenue) or where data is sparse. For margin/ratio series (values between 0-1 or percentages), compute change in basis points rather than % change.

5. Rank Inflections

Rank all series by the magnitude of their most recent acceleration/deceleration:

Top 10 Accelerating — series with the largest positive acceleration in the most recent quarter. These are metrics that are improving faster than before.

Top 10 Decelerating — series with the largest negative acceleration (or deceleration). These are metrics where momentum is fading.

For each inflection, note:

• Series name
• Most recent value (with Daloopa citation)
• Current YoY growth rate
• Prior-quarter YoY growth rate
• Acceleration (the delta)
• Whether this is a new trend (1Q) or sustained (2-3Q in same direction)

6. Contextualize Key Inflections

For the top 5 most significant inflections (by magnitude and importance to the business):

• Search SEC filings for context on what's driving the change
• Try keywords related to the specific metric (e.g., if "Services Revenue" is accelerating, search for "services", "subscription", "recurring")
• Extract management commentary explaining the inflection
• Note whether the inflection aligns with or contradicts management guidance

7. Synthesize

Identify the narrative:

• Is the company broadly accelerating or decelerating?
• Are there divergent trends (e.g., revenue accelerating but margins decelerating)?
• Which inflections matter most for the investment case?
• Are operating KPIs leading or lagging the financial inflections?

Critically assess sustainability:

• For positive inflections: Is this a durable trend change or a one-time comp effect? Will it persist next quarter when the base normalizes? Is it driven by organic strength or by pull-forward, price increases, or easy comps?
• For negative inflections: Is this the beginning of a structural deterioration or a temporary blip? Is the company investing through it (good) or cutting to protect margins (potentially bad long-term)?
• Flag any inflections where the magnitude seems too good/bad to be sustainable.

8. Save Report

Save to reports/{TICKER}_inflection.html using the HTML report template from ../design-system.md. Write the full analysis as styled HTML with the design system CSS inlined. This is the final deliverable — no intermediate markdown step needed.

Structure the report with these sections:

<h1>{Company Name} ({TICKER}) — Inflection Analysis</h1>
<p>Generated: {date}</p>

<h2>Summary</h2>
{2-3 sentence overview: Is the company accelerating, decelerating, or mixed? What are the most important inflections?}

<h2>Top Accelerating Metrics</h2>
<table>
| Rank | Metric | Latest Value | YoY Growth | Prior YoY Growth | Acceleration | Trend |
{table with Daloopa citations}
</table>

<h2>Top Decelerating Metrics</h2>
<table>
| Rank | Metric | Latest Value | YoY Growth | Prior YoY Growth | Deceleration | Trend |
{table with Daloopa citations}
</table>

<h2>Key Inflection Deep Dives</h2>

<h3>1. {Metric Name} — {Accelerating/Decelerating}</h3>
{Context from filings, management commentary, what's driving it}

<h3>2. {Metric Name} — {Accelerating/Decelerating}</h3>
{...}

{repeat for top 5}

<h2>Divergences & Signals</h2>
{Analysis of divergent trends, leading indicators, and implications}

<h2>Inflection Heatmap</h2>
<table>
| Metric | Q(-3) YoY | Q(-2) YoY | Q(-1) YoY | Q(latest) YoY | Direction |
{visual trend using labels: Accelerating / Steady / Decelerating}
</table>

All financial figures must use Daloopa citation format: <a href="https://daloopa.com/src/{fundamental_id}">$X.XX million</a>

Tell the user where the HTML report was saved.

Highlight the 2-3 most notable inflections and what they signal.