023 Assumption Analysis

Assumption Analysis

Guide production of explicit Assumptions, a list of Unknowns, and a Validation plan for a problem under exploration. This is an interactive SKILL.

What is covered in this Skill?

• Surfacing assumptions implicit in the problem frame and root-cause findings
• Distinguishing an assumption (believed true, not yet verified) from an unknown (not yet known either way)
• Ranking assumptions and unknowns by impact and confidence
• Defining a validation plan that names how and when each risky assumption or unknown will be checked
• Feeding assumption and unknown findings into 024-context-mapping and the remaining Functional Specification lenses

Constraints

Make assumptions and unknowns explicit before they become undiscussed risk. When this technique is orchestrated by another workflow, the orchestrator owns clarifying-question sequencing; when applied standalone, ask directly.

• MUST read references/023-assumption-analysis.md before applying Assumption Analysis guidance
• MUST state each assumption as a falsifiable claim believed true but not yet verified
• MUST distinguish assumptions (believed true) from unknowns (not yet known either way)
• MUST rank assumptions and unknowns by impact if wrong and by current confidence
• MUST define a validation plan naming how and when each high-impact, low-confidence assumption or unknown will be checked
• MUST NOT invent an assumption, unknown, or validation step when the available content is vague or ambiguous; flag the gap for a clarifying question instead

When to use this skill

• Surface the assumptions behind this problem
• List the unknowns for this issue
• Build a validation plan for these assumptions
• Apply assumption analysis before design begins
• Draft the Assumption Analysis section of a Functional Specification

Workflow

• Read the Reference

Read references/023-assumption-analysis.md, then review the problem frame and root-cause findings for implicit beliefs.

• Surface Explicit Assumptions

State each assumption as a falsifiable claim believed true but not yet verified.

• List Unknowns

List facts that are not yet known either way, distinct from assumptions.

• Rank by Impact and Confidence

Rank assumptions and unknowns by impact if wrong and by current confidence, prioritizing high-impact, low-confidence items.

• Define the Validation Plan

Name how and when each high-priority assumption or unknown will be validated.

• Report the Assumption Analysis

Report the Assumptions, Unknowns, and Validation plan, and flag any item left open pending a clarifying answer.

Reference

For detailed guidance, examples, and constraints, see references/023-assumption-analysis.md.