Trade Hypothesis Ideator Agent Skill

> Generate falsifiable trade strategy hypotheses from market data, trade logs, and journal snippets. Use when you have a structured input bundle and want ranked hypothesis cards with experiment designs, kill criteria, and optional strategy.yaml export compatible with edge-finder-candidate/v1.

23k tokens

context cost

the whole folder, loaded on every use

files

ships runnable scripts

copies elsewhere

how many repositories repackaged it

118

stars on the repo

on the repository, not the skill itself

Install

one command, takes just this skill from the repository

npx skills add https://github.com/BaggaT236/AI-Trading-Skills --skill trade-hypothesis-ideator

What comes with it

90 425 bytes besides the instruction

examples/example_input.json

examples/example_output.json

examples/sample_input.json

prompts/critique_prompt_template.md

prompts/developer_prompt_template.md

prompts/system_prompt.md

references/evidence_quality_guide.md

references/hypothesis_types.md

schemas/hypothesis_card.schema.json

schemas/input_bundle.schema.json

schemas/output_bundle.schema.json

schemas/raw_hypotheses.schema.json

scripts/pipeline/__init__.py

scripts/pipeline/evidence_extractor.py

scripts/pipeline/format_output.py

scripts/pipeline/normalize.py

scripts/pipeline/ranking.py

scripts/pipeline/strategy_exporter.py

scripts/run_hypothesis_ideator.py

scripts/tests/conftest.py

scripts/tests/test_evidence_extractor.py

scripts/tests/test_format_output.py

scripts/tests/test_guardrails.py

scripts/tests/test_normalize.py

scripts/tests/test_ranking.py

scripts/tests/test_strategy_exporter.py

The instruction itself

7 sections, as written by the author

Trade Hypothesis Ideator

Generate 1-5 structured hypothesis cards from a normalized input bundle, critique and rank them, then optionally export pursue cards into strategy.yaml + metadata.json artifacts.

When to Use

After gathering trade logs, journal entries, or market observations that suggest a potential edge
When you have a structured input bundle (JSON) with evidence snippets and want falsifiable hypotheses
To bridge qualitative observations into quantitative experiment designs
Before committing capital to validate a new strategy idea with kill criteria

Prerequisites

Input JSON bundle with one or more of: trade_log, journal_snippets, market_data, observations
Python 3.9+ with pyyaml installed
No external API keys required (pure calculation skill)

Workflow

Receive input JSON bundle.
Run pass 1 normalization + evidence extraction.
Generate hypotheses with prompts:
prompts/system_prompt.md
prompts/developer_prompt_template.md (inject {{evidence_summary}})
Critique hypotheses with prompts/critique_prompt_template.md.
Run pass 2 ranking + output formatting + guardrails.
Optionally export pursue hypotheses via Step H strategy exporter.

Scripts

Pass 1 (evidence summary):

python3 skills/trade-hypothesis-ideator/scripts/run_hypothesis_ideator.py \
  --input skills/trade-hypothesis-ideator/examples/example_input.json \
  --output-dir reports/

Pass 2 (rank + output + optional export):

python3 skills/trade-hypothesis-ideator/scripts/run_hypothesis_ideator.py \
  --input skills/trade-hypothesis-ideator/examples/example_input.json \
  --hypotheses reports/raw_hypotheses.json \
  --output-dir reports/ \
  --export-strategies

Output

hypothesis_cards_<date>.json — Ranked hypothesis cards with verdicts (pursue, revise, discard)
hypothesis_cards_<date>.md — Human-readable summary with experiment designs and kill criteria
strategy_<hypothesis_id>.yaml — (Optional) Edge-finder-compatible strategy export for pursue cards
metadata_<hypothesis_id>.json — (Optional) Provenance metadata for exported strategies

Resources

references/hypothesis_types.md — Taxonomy of hypothesis patterns (mean-reversion, momentum, event-driven, etc.)
references/evidence_quality_guide.md — Criteria for rating evidence strength and sample size requirements

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How to use it

Copy the folder

Take baggat236/trade-hypothesis-ideator from the repository into ~/.claude/skills for personal use, or into .claude/skills inside a project.

Check the name does not clash

The agent identifies a skill by the name field in its header. Two skills with the same name cannot sit side by side — one of them will be ignored.