What If Agent Skill

what-if

Triggers

• What-if scenario analysis
• scenario tree construction
• base bull bear case
• sensitivity to macro variables
• revenue scenario modeling
• cost scenario analysis
• margin impact scenarios
• interest rate sensitivity
• currency impact scenarios
• commodity price scenarios

Defaults

| Parameter | Default Value | Rationale |

|-----------|---------------|-----------|

| ticker | (required) | Stock symbol to analyze |

| lookback_quarters | 4 | Standard lookback for this skill type |

Methodology

1. Retrieval Scope

This skill operates with retrieval_scope: structured_only. It performs structured data retrieval only (XBRL facts, financials, earnings calendar) — no unstructured document search. Document-retrieval tools are excluded from allowed_tools.

2. Retrieval Strategy

Follows the retrieval strategy decision tree in contracts/retrieval.md. Primary branch: (a) Structured Data Query. Resolve the canonical ticker first (exact → fuzzy alias → share-class) before any data call.

3. Temporal Scope

Default lookback: 4 fiscal quarter(s); maximum: 12. The default balances recency against the trend window this analysis requires.

4. Tool Allowlist

Per frontmatter allowed_tools:

• search_companies — ticker resolution + company context (entity-alias fuzzy match)
• search_xbrl_facts — primary structured financial facts (is_primary default)
• get_company_financials — consolidated IS/BS/CF highlights
• search_earnings_calendar — EPS actual/estimate/surprise + report dates
• get_company_profile — sector/industry classification + metadata
• list_xbrl_concepts — US-GAAP concept discovery for non-standard line items

5. Protocol

• Pre-flight (mandatory): call get_company_fiscal_calendar/{ticker} then get_ticker_coverage/{ticker}; route on coverage.
• Concept discovery (non-standard concepts only): list_xbrl_concepts(query=<term>, ticker=<T>).
• Structured retrieval: search_xbrl_facts(ticker, concept=[...], fiscal_year=[...]) (is_primary default) and/or get_company_financials/{ticker}.
• Batch rule: 3+ same-tool queries → consolidate via batch_search (≤8 sub-queries).
• Output: write the deliverable per ## Output File, then append to agentii.md.

Output File

Write the final deliverable to {ticker}/{YYYY-MM-DD_HHMM}_what-if_{affix}.md .

Output Structure

• Executive Summary (≤200 words) — headline conclusions for the analysis.
• Data Sources — filings + structured endpoints used, with {ticker} {citation_id} page<N> citations.
• Analysis — the core findings, tables, and commentary for this dimension.
• Key Metrics — the quantitative results with QoQ/YoY context where relevant.
• Coverage Gaps & Citations — data not retrievable + citation index.

Citations & memory: follow contracts/citation-and-memory.md — ≥1 citation per 200 words; every material fact, table row, and metric is immediately followed by its inline clickable https://agentii.ai/v/{ticker}/{citation_id}/{N} link; a bottom Citations section provides a non-duplicative roll-up index; the closing TUI reply includes a compact Key Citations list (headline 5–10 facts) of clickable /v/ URLs; and append the run to agentii.md per contracts/agentii-md-schema.md.

Preflight

Run the canonical pre-flight sequence — MCP health probe, ticker resolution, workspace style.md override, memory load, and coverage check. See contracts/preflight.md.

Include the X-Agentii-Trace header on every tool call per contracts/x-agentii-trace-header.md.

Memory & Snapshot

• Memory load (pre-flight): load prior workspace context for the ticker before retrieval — see contracts/memory-load.md.
• Structured output frontmatter: emit the FR-090 block (key_metrics, conclusions, facts_count, deducted_count, views_count, citation_count) per contracts/output-frontmatter-schema.md.
• Snapshot synthesis: after writing the deliverable, update the two-tier snapshot and classify findings as [FACT]/[DEDUCTED]/[VIEW] — see contracts/snapshot-synthesis.md.
• Session archival: record the run under sessions/{YYYY-MM-DD}/ and update sessions/INDEX.md per contracts/session-format.md.

Final Summary (TUI)

End the closing chat reply with a compact Key Citations list (headline 5–10 facts), each a clickable https://agentii.ai/v/{ticker}/{citation_id}/{N} link, so the user can cmd+click straight to the exact SEC page. See contracts/citation-and-memory.md.

Error Handling

| Error | Action |

|-------|--------|

| Ticker not found | Suggest checking spelling or trying list_coverage |

| No data available | Flag in Coverage Gaps, proceed with available data |

| API key invalid | Direct user to agentii.ai/api-keys |

| MCP server unreachable | Retry once; if persistent, halt with AGENTII_MCP_UNREACHABLE |

References

• Methodology: references/methodology.md — tool fallbacks, retrieval strategy, analysis framework
• Output Structure: references/output-structure.md — detailed deliverable sections and ordering