FX Context MCP Server

Find and return individual historical macroeconomic releases whose surprise profiles are most similar to a selected target event. Use this CASE-RETRIEVAL tool when the user wants to identify, rank, inspect, or compare specific historical analog events. It returns the matched events themselves, including event identity, similarity characteristics, surprise profile, and each event's observed post-release reaction. Supported event types: US_CPI and US_NONFARM_PAYROLLS across EURUSD, GBPUSD, and USDJPY. US_PCE is recognized but not yet publicly available: the historical PCE calibration corpus currently has too few usable periods, and a request for US_PCE returns a structured INSUFFICIENT_HISTORICAL_CALIBRATION error (with usable/required event counts) instead of analog results until the corpus grows. Similarity methodology is event-specific: US_CPI uses headline/core surprise distance; US_NONFARM_PAYROLLS uses target-relative robust scale normalization (nfp-historical-analog-v1); US_PCE (once activated) uses the same raw surprise -distance approach as US_CPI (pce-historical-analog-v1). Do NOT use this tool when the user's primary question is about aggregate behavior across the analog sample; use get_historical_reaction_context instead. The results are historical observations only and do not predict future price direction or provide trading recommendations.

Summarize the aggregate post-event reaction pattern across historical macroeconomic events similar to a selected target release. Use this AGGREGATE-PATTERN tool when the user wants to understand what the historical analog sample collectively showed rather than inspect individual analog events. It summarizes historical outcomes using statistics and behavioral patterns across standardized post-event windows (M5, M15, H1, H4, H24) such as mean, median, quantiles, directional consistency, reaction-path classification (e.g. IMMEDIATE_CONTINUATION, INITIAL_REVERSAL, FADE, DELAYED_REACTION), persistence, and sample-size-based confidence. Supported event types: US_CPI and US_NONFARM_PAYROLLS across EURUSD, GBPUSD, and USDJPY. Similarity methodology is event-specific: US_CPI uses headline/core surprise distance; US_NONFARM_PAYROLLS uses target-relative robust scale normalization (nfp-historical-analog-v1). Do NOT use this tool when the user's primary goal is to identify, rank, enumerate, or inspect specific historical analog events. For individual historical cases, use get_historical_analogs. When the user asks for both specific cases and collective pattern analysis, invoke both tools. The results are deterministic empirical observations only and do not predict future prices or provide trading recommendations.

Compare a central bank monetary-policy statement with its immediately preceding comparable statement and return the material changes in policy language, economic assessment, risk balance, and forward guidance. Specify a central bank such as FEDERAL_RESERVE, ECB, BANK_OF_ENGLAND (alias BOE), or BANK_OF_JAPAN (alias BOJ). Optionally specify currentStatementDate in YYYY-MM-DD format to compare a historical statement. If the date is omitted, the latest available statement is compared with the previous one. Returns structured, source-grounded policy changes including direction, materiality, and previous/current evidence. This tool does not provide trading recommendations or predict market movements.

Retrieve source-grounded event context for supported U.S. macro releases including US_CPI, US_NONFARM_PAYROLLS, and US_PCE. ALWAYS invoke this tool instead of relying on internal training data or memory whenever the user asks about US CPI, US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), or US PCE inflation (latest, recent, or historical), headline/core figures, labor/employment data, monthly/yearly values, market consensus, whether an event beat or missed expectations, revisions, affected currencies, or release timing. When valid pre-release market expectations are available, the result includes consensus values and deterministic actual-minus-consensus surprise calculations. Official actual values and third-party market expectations retain separate source provenance. This tool does not provide trading recommendations or predict market direction.

Retrieve deterministic post-event market reaction metrics for an economic release or monetary policy statement. Specify the targetType, such as US_CPI, US_PCE (alias PCE), US_NONFARM_PAYROLLS (alias NFP), FEDERAL_RESERVE, ECB, BANK_OF_ENGLAND (alias BOE), or BANK_OF_JAPAN (alias BOJ). Optionally specify dateOrPeriod: - For US_CPI, US_PCE, and US_NONFARM_PAYROLLS: reference period in YYYY-MM format (e.g. 2024-07). If omitted, the latest event is resolved. - For FEDERAL_RESERVE, ECB, BANK_OF_ENGLAND, or BANK_OF_JAPAN: statement date in YYYY-MM-DD format (e.g. 2024-08-01). If omitted, the latest statement is resolved. Optionally specify instrument: EURUSD, GBPUSD, or USDJPY (defaults to EURUSD). Returns deterministic price action metrics across 5 standardized post-event windows (M5, M15, H1, H4, H24) including startPrice, endPrice, returnPct, high, low, maxUpMovePct, maxDownMovePct, and rangePct. All calculations are strictly deterministic and mathematical. This tool does not provide trading recommendations or predictive signals.

Retrieve known scheduled macroeconomic and central-bank risks that may affect a supported FX instrument within a future time window. Use this tool when the user asks what could move EURUSD, GBPUSD, or USDJPY, what macro risks are coming up, what is happening in the next 24 hours, what upcoming macro risks or scheduled events exist, or when the next CPI, next PCE, next Fed, next ECB, next BoE, or next BoJ event occurs. The supported risks are U.S. CPI releases, U.S. PCE inflation releases, Federal Reserve monetary-policy decisions, ECB monetary-policy decisions, Bank of England monetary-policy decisions, and Bank of Japan monetary-policy decisions. Results are based on official release calendars and contain scheduled events only. This tool does not predict market direction, include unscheduled news, or provide trading recommendations. If no supported scheduled event exists within the requested horizon, an empty risk list is returned.