Brazil Macro AI MCP Server

Detects whether Brazilian economists are revising inflation (IPCA), policy-rate (Selic), growth (PIB Total) or FX (Câmbio) expectations, and measures the speed and dispersion of those revisions — 1-week, 4-week and 13-week changes in the Focus survey median, plus a deterministic rising/falling/stable direction and accelerating/ decelerating/stable speed classification (method_id focus_revisions_v1). Built directly on Focus historical vintages — never recalculates a past date using data published after it. Use when: assessing sentiment shifts among professional economists for Brazil's main macro indicators, or whether a recent revision is speeding up or slowing down. Do not use when: you want market-implied pricing (use get_brazil_copom_path) or a market-vs-consensus comparison (use compare_brazil_market_vs_focus) — this tool is Focus-survey-only. Units are NOT always basis points — check the `unit` field in the response (bps for Selic/IPCA, percentage_points for PIB Total, BRL for Câmbio). Args: indicator: one of "Selic", "IPCA", "PIB Total", "Câmbio". reference_period: e.g. "2027" (the forecast year). Defaults to the current year. segment: "general" (all respondents) or "top5". Never mixed. as_of: optional YYYY-MM-DD date. Defaults to today. payment_token: required in staging ($0.05/call per pricing.yaml).

Market-implied Brazilian inflation breakeven — Fisher's EXACT identity ((1+nominal)/(1+real) - 1), never the linear approximation — computed only where the nominal and real curves both have support at the same tenor (method_id breakeven_fisher_v1). Returns `nominal_zero_rate_pct` and `real_zero_rate_pct` alongside the breakeven so the result is auditable. IMPORTANT: this is NOT "expected inflation" — it embeds risk premium, liquidity and convexity effects. The response field is deliberately named `market_implied_inflation_breakeven`. Use when: assessing what the market is pricing for future inflation, as distinct from Focus survey expectations (use brazil_focus_revisions with indicator="IPCA" for that). Do not use when: you need either curve alone (use brazil_yield_curve / brazil_real_curve). Args: as_of: optional YYYY-MM-DD. Defaults to today. tenors: comma-separated subset of 1Y,2Y,3Y,5Y,7Y,10Y. Default: all. quote_side: "buy", "sell", or "mid" (default). payment_token: required in staging ($0.03/call per pricing.yaml).

Returns a Brazilian macro headline actual (IPCA, IPCA-15, GDP, PIM-PF industrial production, PMC retail sales, PMS services volume, or PNAD Contínua unemployment) with full release-vintage provenance — built on a release/vintage layer that NEVER overwrites an original published number when a later revision arrives (method_id macro_actual_v1). Use when: you need the current headline reading for a Brazilian macro indicator, or (via `vintage`) what was known at a specific historical instant vs. what is currently the revised/correct value. Do not use when: you want the surprise vs. consensus (use brazil_macro_surprise, IPCA only) or the release schedule (use brazil_macro_calendar). Args: indicator: one of IPCA, IPCA15, GDP, PIM_PF, PMC, PMS, PNAD_UNEMPLOYMENT. reference_period: e.g. "2026-07" (monthly) or "2026-Q2" (GDP). as_of: YYYY-MM-DD, REQUIRED when vintage="as_known". vintage: "latest" (currently-correct value, default), "first" (original release, revision_number=0), or "as_known" (what was known publicly at `as_of`).

Official IBGE release calendar for Brazilian macro indicators (IPCA, IPCA-15, GDP, PIM-PF, PMC, PMS, PNAD Contínua unemployment), with status transitions scheduled -> released -> corrected. Use when: you need to know when the next release of a Brazilian macro indicator is scheduled, or whether a given period has been released yet. Args: event: optional filter to one indicator (e.g. "IPCA"). Omit for all. upcoming_only: if true (default), only events not yet released. limit: max events returned (default 20).

Compare a Brazilian macroeconomic release with the latest public consensus that was available before the release, with full vintage and source provenance (method_id macro_surprise_v1). The consensus is ALWAYS the last Focus survey reading published strictly before the official release timestamp — never a reading published after it, and the actual is always the FIRST release, never a later revision. IMPORTANT: only computed for indicators with a methodologically valid, event-specific public consensus — currently IPCA only. GDP/PIM-PF/PMC/ PMS/PNAD_UNEMPLOYMENT raise an error rather than fabricate a consensus (use brazil_macro_actual for those — actual/momentum only, no surprise). Args: indicator: currently only "IPCA" is eligible. reference_period: e.g. "2026-07".

Assess divergence between Brazilian market-implied monetary policy, economist expectations, inflation breakevens and realized inflation surprises, using point-in-time public data with full provenance (method_id monetary_policy_divergence_v1). Consumes ONLY the already-homologated capability layer (market-vs-Focus meeting gaps, Focus Selic/IPCA 4-week revisions, the 5Y inflation breakeven and its 20-business-day change, and the latest eligible IPCA surprise) — never recomputes those engines and never fabricates a number a component doesn't support. Each of the 5 evidence components gets its own deterministic classification (strong_dovish..strong_ hawkish) with a versioned threshold set (threshold_version B4_THRESHOLDS_V1), quality-weighted by the underlying engine's own quality_status. `overall_signal` is a QUALITATIVE composite (strong_dovish/dovish/balanced/hawkish/strong_hawkish/ insufficient_evidence) — deliberately NOT a fabricated 0-100 score. `evidence_agreement` (0-1) tells you separately whether the components agree with each other, independent of the direction of the signal. IMPORTANT: `product_validation_status` is "internal_validated_external_ pending" until C0's external benchmark passes (see docs/C0_external_validation_protocol.md), then "validated" — several inputs (the market-implied Copom path, the real/breakeven curve) are themselves still individually pending external benchmark validation, never hidden here. This is macro intelligence, NOT an investment recommendation. Use when: assessing whether Brazilian market pricing, economist consensus, market-implied inflation and realized inflation data agree or diverge on the direction of monetary policy pressure. Do not use when: you need only one dimension — use compare_brazil_market_vs_focus, brazil_focus_revisions, brazil_inflation_breakeven, or brazil_macro_surprise directly. Args: as_of: optional YYYY-MM-DD date. Defaults to today. horizon_meetings: must be 4 in v1 (the PolicyGap weighting 0.40/0.30/0.20/0.10 is fixed for exactly 4 meetings). include_evidence: if true (default), include the full per-component evidence table (value, signal, quality_status, weights, validation status, source vintage). payment_token: required in staging ($0.25/call per pricing.yaml).

Real (IPCA-linked) Brazilian sovereign zero-coupon curve, bootstrapped from Tesouro Direto NTN-B Principal (zero-coupon) and NTN-B (semi-annual real coupon) offered-security quotes. Built entirely from the bonds' own quoted real yields — no Focus/IPCA projection is used anywhere in this engine. curve_scope = "tesouro_direto_offered_securities" (see brazil_yield_curve). Note: Tesouro currently offers no short-dated real zero-coupon bond, so this curve typically has NO coverage for 1Y/2Y tenors — check `status` per tenor. Use when: you need Brazil's real (inflation-protected) rate curve. Do not use when: you need the nominal curve (brazil_yield_curve) or breakeven inflation (brazil_inflation_breakeven). Args: as_of: optional YYYY-MM-DD. Defaults to today. tenors: comma-separated subset of 1Y,2Y,3Y,5Y,7Y,10Y. Default: all. quote_side: "buy", "sell", or "mid" (default). payment_token: required in staging ($0.03/call per pricing.yaml).

Nominal Brazilian sovereign zero-coupon curve, bootstrapped from Tesouro Direto LTN (zero-coupon) and NTN-F (semi-annual coupon) offered-security quotes (method_id sovereign_zero_curve_bootstrap_v1). curve_scope = "tesouro_direto_offered_securities": this is NOT an institutional ANBIMA/Bloomberg ETTJ — it's derived from retail-offered public securities, published as open data (ODbL license). Tenors outside the curve's actual node coverage return status="unsupported", never extrapolated. Use when: you need Brazil's nominal risk-free curve shape or a specific nominal zero rate. Do not use when: you need the real (inflation-linked) curve (use brazil_real_curve) or breakeven inflation (use brazil_inflation_breakeven). Args: as_of: optional YYYY-MM-DD. Defaults to today. tenors: comma-separated subset of 1Y,2Y,3Y,5Y,7Y,10Y. Default: all. quote_side: "buy", "sell", or "mid" (default). payment_token: required in staging ($0.01/call per pricing.yaml).

Returns market-implied Brazilian Selic expectations for upcoming Copom meetings, derived from B3 DI1 futures via a meeting-step bootstrap (method_id copom_path_di1_v1). Each entry gives the implied Selic level and the implied change in basis points for that specific meeting date — not rounded to 25bp increments. Use when: estimating expected BCB policy changes, the terminal rate, or cumulative easing/tightening priced by the market over the next 1-8 Copom meetings. Do not use when: you want economists' survey expectations instead of market pricing (use brazil_focus_revisions) or a direct comparison between the two (use compare_brazil_market_vs_focus). Limitations: requires liquid DI1 data for the as_of date's most recent trading day; DU counts use the validated B3 trading calendar (A6.1). Args: as_of: optional YYYY-MM-DD date. Defaults to today. meetings: number of upcoming Copom meetings to return (1-8, default 4). agent_id, session_id, discovery_source: optional C1 telemetry fields. payment_token: required in staging for this priced capability ($0.10/call per pricing.yaml) — omit to get the simulated payment_required response instead of a result.

Returns Brazil's current policy rate (Selic target) plus realized short-term rates (Selic 252, CDI) and the last Copom decision. Use when: you need the current or historical Brazilian policy rate, or the most recent Copom decision, without needing forward-looking pricing. Do not use when: you need market expectations for FUTURE meetings — use get_brazil_copom_path or compare_brazil_market_vs_focus instead. Args: as_of: optional YYYY-MM-DD date for a historical snapshot (respects vintage — never uses data published after this date). Defaults to today. agent_id, session_id, discovery_source, payment_token: optional telemetry/access-policy fields (C1) — safe to omit; this capability is free and always returns 200 either way.

Compares the market-implied Copom path (DI1-derived) against the BCB Focus survey median, meeting-by-meeting (not just year-end), returning the gap in basis points per meeting and an overall dovish/hawkish classification (method_id market_vs_focus_meetings_v1). Use when: assessing whether Brazilian rates markets are pricing more or less monetary policy action than professional economists' consensus — useful for research agents, news agents, or risk agents monitoring Brazil-specific policy surprises. Do not use when: you only need one side of the comparison (use get_brazil_copom_path for market pricing alone, or Focus data directly for consensus alone). Args: as_of: optional YYYY-MM-DD date. Defaults to today. horizon: number of upcoming Copom meetings to compare (1-8, default 4). payment_token: required in staging ($0.15/call per pricing.yaml).