Cynefin

Cynefin Analysis

Analyze a situation through the Cynefin framework to understand what type of problem it is and choose the appropriate response.

Instructions

Determine which Cynefin domain the problem belongs to, then apply the appropriate response approach. Be willing to recognize that parts of a problem may span multiple domains.

Output Format

Situation: [What we're analyzing]

Initial Assessment

Characteristics Check

| Characteristic | Yes/No/Maybe | Evidence |

|---------------|--------------|----------|

| Cause and effect are clear and predictable | | |

| Experts can analyze and determine the answer | | |

| Outcomes can only be understood in hindsight | | |

| The situation is unstable/in crisis | | |

| We genuinely don't know what kind of problem this is | | |

Domain Classification

Primary Domain: [Simple/Complicated/Complex/Chaotic/Confused]

Why this domain?

[Reasoning for the classification]

Domain-Appropriate Response

If SIMPLE/OBVIOUS

*Sense → Categorize → Respond*

Best Practice to Apply: [The established approach]

If COMPLICATED

*Sense → Analyze → Respond*

Experts Needed: [Who has the expertise?]

Analysis Required: [What to investigate?]

If COMPLEX

*Probe → Sense → Respond*

Safe-to-Fail Experiments:

| Probe | What We'd Learn | Amplify if... | Dampen if... |

|-------|-----------------|---------------|---------------|

| [experiment] | [insight] | [success indicators] | [failure indicators] |

Key Mindset: Don't try to predict. Try things, observe, adapt.

If CHAOTIC

*Act → Sense → Respond*

Immediate Stabilization: [What action do we take right now?]

If CONFUSED

*Break down, then categorize*

| Sub-problem | Likely Domain | Why |

|-------------|---------------|-----|

| [sub-problem] | [domain] | [reasoning] |

Boundary Warnings

| Transition | Warning Signs | What to Do |

|------------|--------------|------------|

| Simple → Chaotic | Complacency | Challenge assumptions |

| Complicated → Complex | Analysis not converging | Try probes instead |

| Complex → Chaotic | Loss of control | Stabilize fast |

Recommended Approach

Given this is a [DOMAIN] problem, we should:

• [Primary approach]
• [Supporting action]

Guidelines

• Most people default to Complicated (analysis) when Complex (probes) is needed
• "Best practice" is only valid in Simple domain
• In Complex, you can't predict—you can only experiment and adapt
• In Chaotic, act first, think later

$ARGUMENTS