Thesis Tracker

Thesis Tracker

Workflow

Step 1: Define or Load Thesis

If creating a new thesis:

• Company: Name and ticker
• Position: Long or Short
• Thesis statement: 1-2 sentence core thesis (e.g., "Long ACME — margin expansion from pricing power + operating leverage as mix shifts to software")
• Key pillars: 3-5 supporting arguments
• Key risks: 3-5 risks that would invalidate the thesis
• Catalysts: Upcoming events that could prove/disprove the thesis (earnings, product launches, regulatory decisions)
• Target price / valuation: What's it worth if the thesis plays out
• Stop-loss trigger: What would make you exit

If updating an existing thesis, ask the user for the new data point or development.

Step 2: Update Log

For each new data point or development:

• Date: When this happened
• Data point: What changed (earnings beat, management departure, competitor move, etc.)
• Thesis impact: Does this strengthen, weaken, or neutralize a specific pillar?
• Action: No change / Increase position / Trim / Exit
• Updated conviction: High / Medium / Low

Step 3: Thesis Scorecard

Maintain a running scorecard:

| Pillar | Original Expectation | Current Status | Trend |

|--------|---------------------|----------------|-------|

| Revenue growth >20% | On track | Q3 was 22% | Stable |

| Margin expansion | Behind | Margins flat YoY | Concerning |

| New product launch | Pending | Delayed to Q2 | Watch |

Step 4: Catalyst Calendar

Track upcoming catalysts:

| Date | Event | Expected Impact | Notes |

|------|-------|-----------------|-------|

| | | | |

Step 5: Output

Thesis summary suitable for:

• Morning meeting discussion
• Portfolio review
• Risk committee presentation

Format: Concise markdown or Word doc with the scorecard, recent updates, and current conviction level.

Important Notes

• A thesis should be falsifiable — if nothing could disprove it, it's not a thesis
• Track disconfirming evidence as rigorously as confirming evidence
• Review theses at least quarterly, even when nothing dramatic has happened
• If the user manages multiple positions, offer to do a full portfolio thesis review
• Store thesis data in a structured format so it can be referenced across sessions